Oil Prices Could Return to $100 a Barrel in 2023 What Economists Estimate

Oil prices could resume growth in 2023 as Chinese demand recovers from the lifting of restrictions linked to Covid-19 and a lack of investment, which is limiting the increase in supply, OPEC officials told Reuters According to the quoted source, a growing number are eyeing a possible return to $100 per barrel.

In 2022, oil prices hit above $100 for the first time since 2014 as demand rebounded from disruptions caused by COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine heightened supply concerns According to experts, Brent crude ended the year close to $86 due to fears of a global recession.

A return to above $100 for an extended period would bring more income for OPEC members, whose economies depend largely on oil revenues, and would be a setback for industrialized economies trying to control inflation and interest rates To support the market, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed in October to cut production by 2 million barrels a day, about 2 percent of global demand.

After volatility in 2022, which took Brent near an all-time high of $147 a barrel shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, Brent rose slightly in 2023 to just above $86, helped by the plan Russia to reduce production in March The cited source notes that OPEC and OPEC+ do not publish oil price forecasts and do not have a price target.

Officials and ministers from OPEC and OPEC+ are often reluctant to discuss the direction of prices on record Oil could return to around $100 In rare public comments on Wednesday, Iran's national representative to OPEC, Afshin Javan, said oil could return to around $100 in the second half of the year, adding that OPEC+ was likely to will maintain the current production policy at its next meeting.

Reuters spoke to five more OPEC officials about the prospect of $100 oil Of those, three thought oil was more likely to rise in 2023 than fall, and two predicted prices could return to $100.

"It must be said that the shadow of the energy crisis will continue to dominate the world and the general trend of global oil prices will rise," said one of the OPEC sources "In my view, a return of Brent crude to above $100 at some point in 2023 is not unexpected.

" Industry consensus is currently for lower prices in 2022 A Reuters poll of 30 economists and analysts sees Brent averaging $89.

37 a barrel in 2023, down from $99 in 2022 Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for Brent oil in 2023 to $92.

Experts say China's sudden lifting of COVID-19 restrictions is likely to boost oil demand growth in 2023, after the country was forecast to post a small decline in 2022 for the first time in years OPEC sources see, also a lack of investment to raise supply support prices.

OPEC members are pumping nearly 1 million barrels a day less than their target, according to the group's own figures and other estimates While non-OPEC producers are still expected to pump more in 2023, the forecast increase of 1.

5 million bpd is below the expected increase in demand of 2 2 million bpd, according to OPEC forecasts.

"Even with additional supplies coming from here and there, the market will witness a lack of supply compared to demand," another OPEC source said "There is more upward pressure than downward pressure in the market.

" The OPEC+ cut agreed in October applies to the whole of 2023 The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, urged producers to reconsider their production policies on February 5 "if demand increases very strongly".

For now, they have no plans to change direction Key OPEC+ ministers at a meeting on February 1 backed the existing policy, after which a source said the main message was that OPEC+ was staying the course until the end of the deal.

OPEC+ will not increase oil production Two OPEC+ delegates said on Friday that OPEC+ plans no action after Russia announced production cuts Another OPEC source agreed that prices could return to $100 in 2023, although the outlook for economic growth was the main risk.

“It will all depend on the economy – if there is an improvement in China, of course, we will maybe get back to $100 A gross price of $85 to $100 is good for everyone,” he added.

The IEA, which represents 31 countries including top consumer the US, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday on what $100 oil would mean for its members In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk to the global economy.

In addition to recession risks, those OPEC sources eyeing lower prices in 2023 said it was unclear how much demand would come from China and whether it would impose curbs again to limit the COVID-19 crises "There are still uncertainties about economic growth, inflation and the reopening of China," said the second OPEC source who sees lower prices this year.

which represents 31 countries, including top consumer the US, did not immediately respond Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk to the global economy.

In addition to recession risks, those OPEC sources eyeing lower prices in 2023 said it was unclear how much demand would come from China and whether it would impose curbs again to limit the COVID-19 crises "There are still uncertainties about economic growth, inflation and the reopening of China," said the second OPEC source who sees lower prices this year.

which represents 31 countries, including top consumer the US, did not immediately respond Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk to the global economy.

In addition to recession risks, those OPEC sources eyeing lower prices in 2023 said it was unclear how much demand would come from China and whether it would impose curbs again to limit the COVID-19 crises "There are still uncertainties about economic growth, inflation and the reopening of China," said the second OPEC source who sees lower prices this year.

did not immediately respond Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk to the global economy.

In addition to recession risks, those OPEC sources eyeing lower prices in 2023 said it was unclear how much demand would come from China and whether it would impose curbs again to limit the COVID-19 crises "There are still uncertainties about economic growth, inflation and the reopening of China," said the second OPEC source who sees lower prices this year.

did not immediately respond Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk to the global economy.

In addition to recession risks, those OPEC sources eyeing lower prices in 2023 said it was unclear how much demand would come from China and whether it would impose curbs again to limit the COVID-19 crises "There are still uncertainties about economic growth, inflation and the reopening of China," said the second OPEC source who sees lower prices this year.

those OPEC sources eyeing lower prices in 2023 said it was unclear how much demand would come from China and whether it would impose curbs again to limit the COVID-19 crises "There are still uncertainties about economic growth, inflation and the reopening of China," said the second OPEC source who sees lower prices this year.

those OPEC sources eyeing lower prices in 2023 said it was unclear how much demand would come from China and whether it would impose curbs again to limit the COVID-19 crises "There are still uncertainties about economic growth, inflation and the reopening of China," said the second OPEC source who sees lower prices this year.

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